Most seem to expect that the price of gasoline will rise on the order of 60 cents by this summer, putting the price right around $4 a gallon for most Americans. That is also right around the price that I think would doom Obama under most circumstances.
In addition to this, we see that gasoline consumption is way down year over year
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-why-gasoline-consumption-tanking
This would tend to imply that economically things are a lot worse than we are led to believe. I have a suspicion that Obama will call for a release of oil from the SPR to attempt to keep gas prices below the psychological value of $4 a gallon. I'm not sure whether it'll work. There has been since 2008 a lot of demand destruction in the US for gasoline and oil in general---we're importing a lot less than then--much more so than can be accounted for by increased fuel production inside the US.
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